US Crude Oil

I reckon a potential drop to $60 may well be on the cards, but I don’t see prices falling much more than that, as the OPEC+ could easily reverse its plans of gradually increasing output. But for now, the crude oil outlook remains negative.

The price of WTI crude has dropped more than 6% over the past four trading sessions, settling around $67 per barrel, a level not seen since early December 2024.

The price of WTI has dropped more than 3% over the last three trading sessions. This significant bearish movement is mainly due to a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine.

Half an hour after the release of the official weekly oil inventories report, oil prices had not responded significantly, remaining near the session lows.

Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish.

WTI crude has accumulated a loss of more than 8% in value since mid-January of this year.

The WTI barrel has already recorded five consecutive sessions of losses, with a depreciation of more than 5%.

With China’s improving economic conditions, demand concerns have reduced and in the short-term there is little risk of an oil glut forming, but the slightly longer term outlook is a bit murky with the potential for another supply war to emerge between US shale and OPEC+ producers.

Crude oil forecast: Oil prices have shown some recovery, bouncing over 1% in early Monday trading, before easing a little off their earlier highs. However, after last week’s steep 9% decline, the broader outlook remains bearish, especially while WTI crude stays below the critical $70 mark. Could oil prices dip toward $65 in the days ahead?

EIA rude stockpiles data helped to push WTI oil a little off its earlier lows, but it struggled. We maintain a slightly bearish crude oil outlook, especially if WTI breaks back below the $70 on a daily closing basis. Should that happen, it could potentially pave the way for a deeper drop amid follow-up technical selling and given existing concerns about rising supply and lack of a sharper demand growth.

The overall crude oil forecast remains clouded by weak demand, particularly from China, and rising supply pressures. As speculators turn increasingly bearish and technical signals point to further downside, oil prices could continue to face headwinds in the near term.

Hopes that the US driving season would propel prices to new 2024 highs this summer failed to materialise as demand remained weak in key economic regions like China. At the same time, the OPEC+ appeared content with plans to increase output from the fourth quarter.

Stronger GDP, core durable goods orders and the drop in oil inventories have all helped to alleviate demand concerns somewhat, reducing the pressure on oil prices. After today’s reversal-looking price candle, our crude oil forecast has turned modestly bullish.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was slightly off its best levels but remained on track to close higher for the fourth consecutive week as of late Friday. In the week ahead, keep an eye on crude inventories and consumer inflation data from the US.

Despite weaker-than-expected industrial data from China overnight, which should have raised concerns about demand, crude oil prices have rallied more than 1.5% today, building on the 3.5% to 4.0% increase from the previous week.

It is possible we could see crude oil prices come under pressure again after the recent recovery. After all, there are several factors that are likely to limit the upside potential from here, including increased non-OPEC supply, which is undermining the OPEC+ efforts to stabilise the markets.

The crude oil selling resumed on Friday after a two-day respite, although the losses were not as severe as those observed earlier in the week and far less forceful than the drop in metals. This is because a strong jobs report and services PMI data both helped to reduce fears over weakening demand in the US...