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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises after the Fed meeting, trade war worries linger
US stocks have opened higher as the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trade war worries, and a solid housing report. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected but also highlighted rising uncertainties amid rump's trade wars.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX slips with the Fed meeting in focus
US stocks are opening lower after modest gains yesterday, as the mood remains cautious at the start of the Federal Reserve two-day meeting and ahead of Nvidia CEO Huang’s speech later today. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but updated economic projections should provide some clues about how policymakers see Trump's tariffs impacting the economy.
Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Holds Steady Amid Putin-Trump Meeting
After falling to the $65 per barrel zone, WTI has rebounded by more than 4% over the last five trading sessions.
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA struggles after weak retail sales add to slowdown worries
US stocks are struggling at the start of the week, extending losses from the previous week. Concerns over the impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy still weigh heavily, and US retail sales com in below expectations. US retail sales rose 0.2% MoM, well below the 0.7% forecast.
USD/JPY, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
USD/JPY holds steady ahead of the Fed and BoJ decisions this week. Oil rises on China's optimism.
Crude Oil Forecast: Short Covering and WTI Spread Hint at Bounce
I've watched net-long exposure to crude oil decline alongside prices in recent weeks. But with managed funds culling shorts at their fastest pace in a year and volumes now rising alongside prices, perhaps yesterday's bounce on WTI has more to give.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rebounds after CPI cooled by more than forecast
US stocks are soaring ahead of the open after cooler-than-expected US inflation data keeps Fed rate cut hopes alive, even as trade tensions escalate and recession fears loom. US CPI eased to 2.8% YoY from 3%, and underlying CPI eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. The data comes as trade tension ramps up and the EU, Canada, and China apply retaliatory tariffs.
DAX, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX rises after steep losses and amid tariff worries. Oil steadies, but tariff & recession concerns remain.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls as trade uncertainty fuels downturn worries
US stocks are set to open lower on Monday as President Trump’s comments over the weekend fueled concerns that the trade war could trigger an economic downturn. Trump refused to rule out an economic downturn due to fluctuating trade policies. This week, US CPI data will be a key release.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls after NFP misses & on trade tariff uncertainty
US stocks point to a weaker opening after the latest US non-farm payroll came in weaker than expected amid ongoing US trade policy uncertainty. 151K jobs were added in February, up from 125 K in January but below forecasts of 160 K. Inemployment rose to 4.1%, The data missed forecasts but wasn't as bad as some feared. On going trade tariff uncertainty is also dragging on sentiment.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls on trade tariff uncertainty & jobs data
US stocks point to a weaker open as investors weigh up the latest trade tariff developments and mixed jobs data. Trump announced a one-month exemption from the newly imposed 25% tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the ongoing uncertainty makes it hard for companies to plan. Challenger job cuts jump 245%.
EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD rises to a 4-month high ahead of the ECB rate decision. Oil rises from a multi-year low, but the outlook remains weak.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ muted on tariff relief optimism & weak data
US stocks are set to open mixed amid hopes for tariff negotiations and as investors look ahead to the ISM services PMI data. ADP payrolls were weaker than expected. Concerns over the outlook for the US economy are rising. Comments from US Commerce Secretary raised hopes that the trade tariffs could still be walked back and used as a negotiating tool by Trump.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls further as the US applies trade tariffs
US stocks are set to open lower as investors avoid riskier assets after President Trump presses ahead with trade tariffs on its neighbours and China, raising concerns over the economic outlook. The US imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled levies on Chinese goods to 20%. Meanwhile, China retaliated with additional tariffs on its US imports.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after core PCE cools
US stocks are heading modestly higher, stabilizing from yesterday’s sell-off as investors weigh up core PCE data and lingering trade tariff worries. Core PCE eased to 2.6% YoY, from 2.9% in December. The mood could remain cautious ahead of Trump's trade tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports starting Monday.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA muted after Trump trade threats
US stocks are muted amid a cautious mood after President Trump reaffirmed the possibility of tariffs on Mexico and Canada and ahead of consumer confidence data. Trump reiterated that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were still likely from Monday. Chip stocks are also under pressure on reports of more export restrictions to China.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
GBP/USD steady below 1.27 despite Trump’s tariff threats. Oil rises US imposes more sanctions on Iran.
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rebounds after last week's losses
US stocks are heading for a stronger start, rebounding from last week's losses as investors look ahead to Trump's speech later today and Nvidia's earnings later in the week. Soft data last week sent all three indices sharply lower amid signs that businesses and consumers were losing confidence owing to the Trump administration's policies.
US-Russia-Ukraine Tensions Lift Oil and Gold
Trump leverages tariffs on autos, chips, and pharmaceuticals in Russia talks, excluding Ukraine, fueling market fears of escalating geopolitical risks.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ muted after retail sales drop
US stocks are pointing to a quiet start as investors await more details on trade tariffs and amid rising concerns over the health of the US consumer. Retail sales fell -0.9% MoM worse than the -0.1% decline forecast. Stocks are set to rise across the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 near record highs as trade war fears ease.
Oil Slips to $70, Gold Struggles to Confirm $3000
Oil declined on Russia-Ukraine peace hopes and economic slowdown risks, while gold maintained its bullish rally, driven by Middle East tensions, trade wars, and inflation uncertainty. Gold’s path to $3,000 remains unclear.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
GBP/USD rises ahead of US CPI data. Oil falls ahead of EIA stockpile & US CPI data.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX slips ahead of Powell's testimony
US stocks point to a modestly lower start on Tuesday amid a cautious mood as investors await Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress. The market will look for Powell's insights on tariffs and their impact on inflation in the world's largest economy. Given the inflation picture and resilient jobs market, Powell's comments are unlikely to be dovish.