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USD Limps into Q1 Close; a Big Week is Ahead for DXY
USD came into the year with a full head of steam, but a strong reversal took over in March as recession fears came into the picture.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls as trade tariff & recession fears mount
US stocks are poised for a weaker open, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping to its lowest level since September amid concerns that President Trump's trade tariffs will negatively impact the US economy. Goldman Sachs raised its recession risk to 35% from 20%. Gold rises to a record high.
EUR/USD, Dollar Index, VIX Analysis: COT report
Asset managers increased their gross-short exposure to EUR/USD for the first week in six. Asset managers trimmed net-long exposure to the US dollar index for a tenth week. And the large speculators that help flip VIX exposure to net-short may be regretting their move, looking at how Wall Street indices are now trading.
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA extends losses after hotter core PCE inflation
US stocks have opened lower on Friday, following key inflation data and amid a fragile market mood ahead of next week's trade tariff announcements. The US core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, rose in February, and household demand was weaker than expected amid growing concerns about household finances
USD/JPY Rally Continues: USD, EUR/USD into U.S. Core PCE
The U.S. Dollar has come back to life since the FOMC rate decision but tomorrow brings a key piece of inflation data and next week brings NFPs.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA extends losses as the trade war deepens
US stocks have opened lower, extending losses from yesterday, as investors continue to assess President Trump's latest tariff announcements.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX holds steady with tariffs in focus
US stocks have opened quietly amid a cautious market mood as investors await key economic data later this week and more clarity on Trump's trade tariffs, which are expected to take effect next week. The recent relief rally has paused as investors await more details over tariffs, which will be applied from April 2. US core PCE inflation data is due on Friday.
U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, SPX, Gold, GBP/USD
The USD is continuing a bounce and stocks are pushing higher to further moves that started to spark last week.
Japanese yen broadly lower, USD, risk bounces amid Trump-tariff relief
The anticipated bounce on the US dollar index is finally underway, Wall Street indices enjoyed their best day in just over a week and the Japanese yen was broadly lower as the week kicked off with a risk-on tone.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of the FOMC rate decision
US stocks are opening higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%. Powell's comments, economic projections, and the dot plot will provide clues about how the Fed sees Trump's policies impacting the economy.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX slips with the Fed meeting in focus
US stocks are opening lower after modest gains yesterday, as the mood remains cautious at the start of the Federal Reserve two-day meeting and ahead of Nvidia CEO Huang’s speech later today. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but updated economic projections should provide some clues about how policymakers see Trump's tariffs impacting the economy.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA struggles after weak retail sales add to slowdown worries
US stocks are struggling at the start of the week, extending losses from the previous week. Concerns over the impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy still weigh heavily, and US retail sales com in below expectations. US retail sales rose 0.2% MoM, well below the 0.7% forecast.
AUD/USD rises, EUR/USD, USD/CAD dip, US dollar selloff loses steam
The combination of tariff fatigue, extended moves and a refreshing set of softer CPI figures helped appetite for risk peel itself from the ropes it had been pinned to in recent weeks. And that helped AUD/USD rise for a second day and USD/CAD fall below resistance, while EUR/USD bulls paused for breath around a key high.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rebounds after CPI cooled by more than forecast
US stocks are soaring ahead of the open after cooler-than-expected US inflation data keeps Fed rate cut hopes alive, even as trade tensions escalate and recession fears loom. US CPI eased to 2.8% YoY from 3%, and underlying CPI eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. The data comes as trade tension ramps up and the EU, Canada, and China apply retaliatory tariffs.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls as trade uncertainty fuels downturn worries
US stocks are set to open lower on Monday as President Trump’s comments over the weekend fueled concerns that the trade war could trigger an economic downturn. Trump refused to rule out an economic downturn due to fluctuating trade policies. This week, US CPI data will be a key release.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls after NFP misses & on trade tariff uncertainty
US stocks point to a weaker opening after the latest US non-farm payroll came in weaker than expected amid ongoing US trade policy uncertainty. 151K jobs were added in February, up from 125 K in January but below forecasts of 160 K. Inemployment rose to 4.1%, The data missed forecasts but wasn't as bad as some feared. On going trade tariff uncertainty is also dragging on sentiment.
USD/JPY, AUD/USD forecast: The dollar’s demise slows its pace
The US dollar fell for a fourth day, but formed a near-term reversal signal near support. A slightly favourable NFP report today could help the USD recover some of this week's losses, prompting a bounce on USD/JPY and minor pullback on AUD/USD. Beyond that, further losses for the dollar appear to be more likely.
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls on trade tariff uncertainty & jobs data
US stocks point to a weaker open as investors weigh up the latest trade tariff developments and mixed jobs data. Trump announced a one-month exemption from the newly imposed 25% tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the ongoing uncertainty makes it hard for companies to plan. Challenger job cuts jump 245%.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ muted on tariff relief optimism & weak data
US stocks are set to open mixed amid hopes for tariff negotiations and as investors look ahead to the ISM services PMI data. ADP payrolls were weaker than expected. Concerns over the outlook for the US economy are rising. Comments from US Commerce Secretary raised hopes that the trade tariffs could still be walked back and used as a negotiating tool by Trump.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls further as the US applies trade tariffs
US stocks are set to open lower as investors avoid riskier assets after President Trump presses ahead with trade tariffs on its neighbours and China, raising concerns over the economic outlook. The US imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled levies on Chinese goods to 20%. Meanwhile, China retaliated with additional tariffs on its US imports.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after core PCE cools
US stocks are heading modestly higher, stabilizing from yesterday’s sell-off as investors weigh up core PCE data and lingering trade tariff worries. Core PCE eased to 2.6% YoY, from 2.9% in December. The mood could remain cautious ahead of Trump's trade tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports starting Monday.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after Nvidia beats & US Q4 GDP data
US stocks are heading for a mixed start, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rising after Nvidia’s upbeat numbers. However, the Dow Jones fell into the red after President Trump said that Canada and Mexico trade tariffs would go ahead as planned. US Q4 GDP was upwardly revised to 2.4%, but more timely jobless claims rose to 242k.
US dollar, yields dragged lower with consumer confidence, reviving rate-cut bets
Fed rate-cut bets are on the rise again after following another weak consumer sentiment report weighed on sentiment and warned of a slowing US economy.