Australia

The Australian and Canadian dollar came under further pressure on the eve of Trump's liberation day, seeing AUD/USD fall as much as -1.3% and USD/CAD rise 0.7%. And the relative underperformance of the two could bode well for AUD/CAD bears, which is displaying several clues on the higher timeframes that it could be headed lower.

AUD/USD is on track for a bullish month for March, even if it handed back over half of its early-month gains. Attention now shifts to tomorrow's RBA meeting for AUD/USD traders, alongside ISM and NFP reports from the US.

AUD/USD has made a mild attempt to move higher this week, yet higher timeframes continue to suggest a move towards 62c. And that could see GBP/AUD have a crack at the 2020 highs over the near term, though I'm also keeping an eye out for a cycle top and pullback.

The anticipated bounce on the US dollar index is finally underway, Wall Street indices enjoyed their best day in just over a week and the Japanese yen was broadly lower as the week kicked off with a risk-on tone.

Whether the RBA cut in Q2 or Q3 could come down to the quarterly inflation figures released on the 30th April. But AUD/USD traders will of course keep a close eye on the AU monthly inflation report and US core PCE figures released this week.

The ASX is set to snap its most bearish weekly streak in a year. While the cash index is set to open 17 points lower today, I still favour a retest (and potential break above 8,000) which should see SPI 200 futures also clear that hurdle.

With US yields lower and hinting at a swing high, the relationship between AUD/USD and the AU-US 2-year spread appear to be back on talking terms. And that could bode well for AUD/USD bulls if US yields continue to fall in line with my bias.

The ASX 200 is seeing bullish signs of life after four weeks of heavy selling, and shows the potential to retest 8000 or even 8100. But given the bearish interest that saw prices plunge the prior four weeks, further losses appear likely after a corrective bounce plays out.

It has been three weeks since AUD/USD fell to a post-pandemic low amid Trump's tariff's headlines. Yet its rebound suggests a significant low has formed. Still, that rebound appears exhausted ahead of key CPI report from Australia and the US. And that means a pullback could be due.

We still have two full trading days to wake AUD/USD up from its lull but, as things stand, it's on track for its smallest weekly range this century. Barring a dire jobs report, (small) dips appear favourable for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.

While the ASX shows the potential to dip further, I remain wary that we’ll see an immediate bearish follow through while Wall Street teases new record highs.

The RBA and RBNZ are expected to cut their cash rates this week, though the 50bp RBNZ cut should see their interest rate drop back beneath the RBA's. This has seen implied volatility for AUD/NZD move higher.

The breakout to a 5-year low on Monday was short lived, before AUD/USD went on to recover as much as 3.5% by the day's high. Given the extended bearish period seen since Q4, perhaps an important cycle low has been set.

Trump's tariffs and divergent monetary-policy expectations between the RBA and Fed are weighing on AUD/USD. But whether it can hold above the January low could come down to whether USD/CNH breaks above its 2022 high.

Well, Trump's tariffs are not going away. In fact, they're on Canada's doorstep. And that was enough to send USD/CAD to a 5-year high late in the day on Thursday, which only adds to the excitement of month end flows and messy price action.

The ASX 200 index is eyeing a record high. But with SPI 200 futures dragging its heels below resistance looms and the Fed unlikely to cut soon, an immediate breakout is not on my horizon. Even though an eventual breakout seems inevitable.

Today's quarterly inflation figures for Australia could be the difference between the RBA cutting rates or standing pat at their next meeting. And with market pricing a cut in, we need a soft trimmed-mean to avoid short-covering rebound on AUD/USD.