Asian Open

The Australian and Canadian dollar came under further pressure on the eve of Trump's liberation day, seeing AUD/USD fall as much as -1.3% and USD/CAD rise 0.7%. And the relative underperformance of the two could bode well for AUD/CAD bears, which is displaying several clues on the higher timeframes that it could be headed lower.

The Japanese yen was the weakest currency on Thursday, with traders lowering their expectations of a BOJ hike in light of Trump's tariffs. GBP/JPY was the outperformer as traders are also lowering their expectations of BOE cuts. But whether USD/JPY can break out above its 200-day EMA and the 152 handle likely requires a soft set of inflation figures from Tokyo and a stronger-than-expected US PCE report today.

The relative calm seen on Wall Street these past two weeks came to an abrupt end on Wednesday in anticipation of Trump's auto tariffs. The Nasdaq led the way lower, with S&P 500 and ASX futures being dragged along for the ride.

AUD/USD has made a mild attempt to move higher this week, yet higher timeframes continue to suggest a move towards 62c. And that could see GBP/AUD have a crack at the 2020 highs over the near term, though I'm also keeping an eye out for a cycle top and pullback.

The anticipated bounce on the US dollar index is finally underway, Wall Street indices enjoyed their best day in just over a week and the Japanese yen was broadly lower as the week kicked off with a risk-on tone.

The ASX is set to snap its most bearish weekly streak in a year. While the cash index is set to open 17 points lower today, I still favour a retest (and potential break above 8,000) which should see SPI 200 futures also clear that hurdle.

With US yields lower and hinting at a swing high, the relationship between AUD/USD and the AU-US 2-year spread appear to be back on talking terms. And that could bode well for AUD/USD bulls if US yields continue to fall in line with my bias.

We have two powerhouse central bank meetings lined up over the next 24 hours. While neither the BOJ or Fed are expected to change policy, the FOMC release their updated forecasts which will provide the first glimpse of their expectations of Trump's tariffs. Implied volatility for USD/JPY is, quite rightly, elevated.

Risk-on sentiment is lifting AUD/USD and GBP/USD as fiscal stimulus from Germany and China fuels a rally in cyclical assets. With the ECB decision and US payrolls on deck, can the rally extend, or will event risk spoil the party?

Markets swung hard after Lutnick’s late bombshell on tariffs, fueling a powerful squeeze in risk assets. Bond bulls are suddenly on the ropes, EUR/USD has broken out, and S&P 500 futures are clinging to key support. Is this a turning point, or just another violent twist in the trade spat?

Trump’s tariffs are going ahead and there’s no wriggle room to escape them. And with their impact already showing up in US economic data and the potential for a 20% China tariff, the Australian dollar is unravelling.

AUD/USD was the weakest currency on Wednesday, weighed down by the trifecta of headlines around domestic inflation, tariffs and new capital controls in China. While AUD/USD and USD/CAD both retraced for a fourth day, an inflection point may be near.

Fed rate-cut bets are on the rise again after following another weak consumer sentiment report weighed on sentiment and warned of a slowing US economy.

With several yen pairs holding above key support levels, the odds of a countertrend move have increased. That could see USD/JPY hold its December low for now, even if the core bias remains for an eventual break beneath it.

The Aussie’s been on a tear, riding a wave of narrowing yield differentials and China’s stock market rebound. But with a key technical level in sight, will the rally have legs, or are sellers ready to pounce?

We still have two full trading days to wake AUD/USD up from its lull but, as things stand, it's on track for its smallest weekly range this century. Barring a dire jobs report, (small) dips appear favourable for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.

While the ASX shows the potential to dip further, I remain wary that we’ll see an immediate bearish follow through while Wall Street teases new record highs.