US 500

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 just suffered their worst quarter in three years. Given it occurred just after record high, it begs the question as to whether bulls are in for another rough quarter.

The relative calm seen on Wall Street these past two weeks came to an abrupt end on Wednesday in anticipation of Trump's auto tariffs. The Nasdaq led the way lower, with S&P 500 and ASX futures being dragged along for the ride.

After a bright start, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were coming off their highs, while the Dow and Russell lost their earlier gains. The loss of momentum comes after the S&P enjoyed one of its strongest days so far this year in the previous session. Clearly, investors are fearful about further volatility ahead and are happy to book profit, as the major indices test key resistance areas.

SPX broke its weekly losing streak last week and this week is starting off on a more optimistic tone.

Wall Street staged a respectable bounce following Powell’s somewhat dovish tone, but—as we’ve seen in recent sessions, the gains could not hold for too long.

It’s been a fast re-pricing in stocks over the past four weeks and this week brings the Fed.

The SPX has dropped over 7.0% since its most recent peak on February 19, when it climbed to the 6,150-point range.

I suspect the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 could be looking at fresh cycle lows before they break to new record highs, but that doesn't mean they cannot post a cheeky bounce along the way.

With no significant fundamental catalysts at play, markets continue to find willing buyers on the dips, allowing equities to edge higher. However, a correction may soon be necessary to restore a more attractive valuation for US stocks. While there are no overt warning signs just yet, it pays to be alert to signals that would put the S&P 500 forecast on a downward trajectory in the short-term.

It has been another turbulent start to the week for Wal Street and ASX 200 futures, as traders react to Trump's tariffs.

Investors are closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including jobless claims and retail sales data today, for clues about the health of the US economy and the Fed’s policy trajectory. For as long as we don’t see big surprises, mildly positive surprises in these areas could reinforce the market’s optimism and provide further fuel for the S&P 500.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries have risen as much as 120 bps from the low just before the FOMC’s first rate cut of this cycle, and now it’s starting to negatively impact equities.

The market was already repricing US interest rates higher in recent days and week, amid expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, when he takes office later this month. But the surprising strength of US labour market means traders have now shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October.

The recent bearish trend isn’t confined to the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced its first 10-day losing streak since 1974, shedding nearly 2,900 points over two weeks from its highest to its lowest points.

While the market appears bullish right now, the S&P 500 forecast is far from certain, especially with a lack of fresh bullish catalysts to consider. Could profit-taking negatively impact the market soon?

So far, US stock investors appear unfazed by global softness in commodities and bond markets, even as the 10-year Treasury yield inches closer to 4.5%, reflecting a more hawkish interest rate outlook for next year. But with the dust settling on Trump’s election victory, could we finally see retracement to cause a bearish shift in the short-term S&P 500 forecast?

A brutal day for risk sent Wall Street indices lower on Thursday, but support levels and the tendency for stocks to rise on the week of a US election could help the S&P 500 and ASX 200. Assuming the wheels don't truly fall off first.